The SPC has put most of the west section of North Georgia under a slight risk for severe weather tonight as a powerful Arctic front heads in this direction. While I think the threat is marginal, meaning not all that great, there is still a small chance. Here is the current set up.
There is a very strong arctic front pushing through the southern states as we speak. Ahead of the front we have had a lot of southerly winds pump in heavy moisture for this time of the year. Dewpoints are in the upper 60's and as you can see below there is some instability across the area. Granted it is a bit low for tornadoes, the thing is that there are some very strong winds above the surface as part of this jet stream moves in overhead. I have been watching some stronger storms try to fire up to the SW near Carrollton but they were torn apart by the shear from the intense jet stream winds. This is a good thing meaning that the instability is not strong enough to overcome the amount of shear we have in place.
This would be different if the front was here, but it is just starting to move into Alabama at 4pm. This will be a slow moving front so I think that the real threat will be to the west in Alabama this evening, but if storms continue to fire to the SW that could change.
Right now the models are indicating that we will see a few storms, non severe, move through the area this evening and that is happening according to Live 11Alive Radar. The NAM continues to show some good instability in the region through about 9pm tonight, but at the same time it shows an increase in the upper winds overhead as that massive storm approaches us. That means that if storm do go up, they will get torn apart unless we get more instability which I don't see happening. I will continue to monitor through the evening.
On a scale of 1-10 I am giving this one a 2 as of right now for the western sections of the state. I don't think we will see anything in Atlanta as of right now.
If you love all things winter and stuff that involves cold air, here are some more blogs for you to check out!
POSSIBLE PLAST OF ARCTIC AIR HEADING IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THIS WEEKEND
STUNNING IMAGES OF LAKE IN RUSSIA FROZEN SOLID AND COMPLETELY TURQUOISE
MY OFFICIAL WINTER FORECAST FOR 2013 / 2014