The models have been trending towards a drier upper level system over the last 3 runs, but I am still holding with my original forecast of seeing flurries in metro Atlanta. The rain will continue on and off for the remainder of the overnight then the system to the north will phase with the southern one and pop the rain into a few flurries. The timing on the flurries still looks to be between 4 and 7am for most of the metro area and I still not expecting any accumulations down here.
In the mountains where there is a winter weather advisory we could see around an inch of snow before the morning is over. There should not be any travel problems up there, but of course check with Chesley in the morning for an update.
Here is my original forecast from 5pm today
The latest model run are in and I have been analyzing them for a bit now. I have come to the conclusion that my forecast remains the exact same as it was earlier this morning. The difference with the models is the timing on the northern disturbance coming in about 2 hours behind what the morning runs had. The timing on that one arriving will determine exactly when we see the flurries.
It is what I like to call the kicker in the mix, in other words it is the cold punch that will drop the mid level temps far enough for snow. It is also the ingredient that will create a tremendous amount of lift ahead of it. In other words we won't see snow until that northern kick makes it here which will be between 5 and 7am. So yes, the timing is just a bit slower that I previously thought.
So my official forecast calls for light rain in the am changing over to a rain / flurry mix by around 5am. This area of "mix" should move through the metro area between 5-8am. ZERO accumulations are expected and I am not seeing ANY travel issues. I do think in the mountains there could be around an inch of snow overnight, this is in the area that has a winter weather advisory.
This is a massive storm that will really light up the entire east coast on the busiest travel day of the year! I will keep you updated through the rest of the afternoon and overnight period.