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Hurricane Warning for northern Gulf Coast

5:41 PM, Aug 26, 2012   |    comments
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ATLANTA --  Tropical storm Isaac continues to move to the northwest after moving over the Florida Keys Sunday.  The storm will get stronger Monday.  It will remain a tropical storm tonight, then increase in strength to a hurricane later Monday.

At 5pm Sunday, Isaac had 60mph winds. Isaac will strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico and become a category 2 storm with 105mph max winds before landfall early Wednesday.  The shift to the west in the forecast track would take the center of the storm closer to the Louisiana/Mississippi state line early Wednesday. This track is based on the projections from the National Hurricane Center.  The spaghetti model plots continue to show a westward shift in the path of the storm. 

Once the storm moves inland, it will begin to weaken.  However, it will be a big rain producer and storm producer as it moves north.  We will begin to see some off and on outerbands on Tuesday in metro Atlanta and north Georgia.  The heaviest rain will be on Wednesday and Thursday.  Since the main area of the storm will be well to the west, our predictions for rain totals is getting lower.  Instead of 8-10" rain totals, we may have 2-4" rain totals between Tuesday and Friday.   We will still have some effects with rain, and potential for storms on Wednesday and Thursday. 

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Again, this is all based off of the latest model runs, and the most consistent models.  However, consistency does not always mean accuracy, so these variables could change slightly.

The heaviest rainfall, and best chance for severe weather is always along the eastern side of the storm. Being just to the right of the center of circulation will put Atlanta in the biggest threat for tornadoes. If the storm shifts farther west,  Atlanta will experience the heavy rain and severe weather mentioned above. If the storm shifts east from the Florida panhandle and heads towards Savannah, Atlanta will likely only see moderate rainfall.

We're following the storm's path and preparing you for whatever we may get.

You can stay up to date on our Facebook page and on Twitter @11Alivenews #Isaac #gawx.

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