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New Poll: Is the Governor's Race Headed for A Runoff?

12:06 AM, Oct 26, 2010   |    comments
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ATLANTA, Ga. -- With the general election just a week from Tuesday, a new independent poll from SurveyUSA commissioned by 11Alive News and V-103 Radio shows a commanding lead for Georgia's Republicans in statewide offices, but it also shows an increased possibility of a runoff in some of them, including the hotly contested governor's race.

Democratic candidate and former Gov. Roy Barnes is up a small bit from our last survey six weeks ago, but the numbers indicate that Republican former US Congressman Nathan Deal is ahead of Barnes, 49 percent to 39 percent. Libertarian John Monds, at 8 percent, takes the votes of 1-in-4 independents and 1-in-6 liberals, potentially keeping Deal just under the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff, though support for third-party candidates sometimes collapses on Election Day. 

If there is a runoff, that will take place on Nov. 30.

Republican US Sen. Johnny Isakson is expected to win a second term, with survey numbers showing him with a commanding 2-to-1 lead over Democratic challenger Michael Thurmond among older voters and with a 5-to-1 lead among white voters. Overall, Isakson has a 58-to-34 percent margin over Thurmond.

In the Lieutenant Governor's race, Republican incumbent Casey Cagle maintains his lead over Democrat Carol Porter 53-to-37 percent. Republican Attorney General candidate and former Cobb County Commission Chairman Sam Olens has a 13 point lead over Democratic challenger Ken Hodges. Libertarian candidate Don Smart has 7 percent overall, leading to the outside chance of a Olens-Hodges runoff, though since Olens has exactly 50 percent as of this poll, it is not likely.

GOP ex-principal John Barge's 13-point lead over Democratic opponent Joe Martin still has him below 50 percent, leading to a higher likelihood that he may be facing a runoff in the state school superintendent's race.

As was true in the last poll, about 8-of-10 partisan voters are sticking with their party's candidate, but independent voters are leaning strongly toward Republican candidates, mirroring similar polling data from across the country. The Republican candidate is holding a significant lead in each contest among those voters who have cast early ballots.

The survey interviewed 1,100 Georgia adults between Oct. 21 and Oct. 24 via telephone. Of those surveyed, 909 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 601 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the general election. The margin of sampling error was a plus-or-minus 4.1 percent.  

 

If the election for Georgia Governor were today, who you vote for? Republican Nathan Deal? Democrat Roy Barnes? Or Libertarian John Monds?

 

49%

Deal (R)

39%

Barnes (D)

8%

Monds (L)

3%

Undecided

 

Georgia voters will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for United States Senator from Georgia were today, who would you vote for? Republican Johnny Isakson? Democrat Mike Thurmond? Or Libertarian Chuck Donovan?

 

58%

Isakson (R)

34%

Thurmond (D)

5%

Donovan (L)

3%

Undecided

 

Georgia will also elect a Lieutenant Governor. If the election for Lieutenant Governor were today, who would you vote for? Republican Casey Cagle? Democrat Carol Porter? Or Libertarian Dan Barber?

 

53%

Cagle (R)

37%

Porter (D)

6%

Barber (L)

4%

Undecided

 

Georgia will also elect an Attorney General. If the election for Attorney General were today, who would you vote for? Republican Sam Olens? Democrat Ken Hodges? Or Libertarian Don Smart?

 

50%

Olens (R)

37%

Hodges (D)

7%

Smart (L)

7%

Undecided

 

Georgia will also elect a State School Superintendent. If the election for School Superintendent were today, who would you vote for? Republican John Barge? Democrat Joe Martin?

 

49%

Barge (R)

36%

Martin (D)

10%

Willis (L)

6%

Undecided

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