It's still too early to be precise, but a developing tropical system in the Caribbean could have an impact on our weekend. We are watching an area of disturbed weather south of Cuba that is getting a little better organized. The National Hurricane Center gives this area cloudiness a 30% chance of developing within the next 48 hours. It has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical storm within the next 5 days.
INTERACTIVE | Tracking the Tropics
Right now, it is forecast to move toward the north and west. This would eventually take it into the Gulf of Mexico. The water in the Gulf is very warm. This would support this storm strengthening even more.
We have to watch this system because it will be influenced by a cold front that is moving our way for the weekend. It will begin to move more to the north, then the northeast. Our "spaghetti plots" bring the moisture associated with this system into the northern Gulf coast and eventually into Georgia late in the weekend.
It is not a guarantee that this will even develop at all into a tropical storm or hurricane. If it does, it would be named "Karen."
MORE | Hurricane Names
Even if it doesn't become a tropical storm, some of the moisture associated with this area of low pressure would still enhance our rain chances Sunday and Monday.
MORE | National Hurricane Center Website
We will continue to watch every change with the intensity forecast and forecast track. More to come.
Here is the latest advisory from the NHC:
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOST OF
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOW. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS
WEEK...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.